ESAI: Future climate change policy likely regional, national

“Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation: 2010-2025” is a recent report by Energy Security Analysis Inc. that analyzes how transportation fuels will develop in coming decades.

The report’s executive summary says competing—sometimes conflicting—reform will result in “a vastly different fuels landscape than the comparatively simple gasoline and diesel market in place today.” ESAI believes the emergence of vehicle fuel technologies will develop slowly and haphazardly.

“The overarching conclusion of this study is that environmental reform will result from a mosaic of provincial, national, and regional initiatives,” the report said. “ESAI believes that the scatter shot approach described in this study illustrates the likely evolution of future developments in climate change policy.

“While international negotiations such as those in Kyoto or Copenhagen will serve a purpose in aligning benchmarks, the future of climate policy will unfold not on the global stage, but on the national and regional stage.”

ESAI , a Boston-area energy research and consulting firm, notes that the changing transportation fuels business presents opportunities for oil companies, some of whom already are partnering with new energy companies developing breakthrough technologies.

Cleantech investment continues

Despite diminished fourth quarter results, venture capital funding continues in the clean technology category, said the Cleantech Group of San Francisco.

During 2008, cleantech venture investments reached a record $8.4 billion despite the credit crisis and broadening recessions. That total accounted for investments in North America, Europe, China, and India.

It was the seventh consecutive year of growth. Nicholas Parker, Cleantech Group executive chairman, remains optimistic despite the financial crunch.

"Now, more than ever, clean technologies represent the biggest opportunities for job and wealth creation," he said. "In 2009, we're going to see a lot of progress in terms of imagining what's possible, and consensus around the need to really take it up a gear."

Cleantech reports solar accounted for $3.3 billion of the cleantech VC investment last year followed by biofuels at $904 million. Transportation (electric vehicles, advanced batteries, fuel cells) was $795 million, and wind accounted for $502 million.

I wonder if the pattern of spending by major oil companies on alternative energy follow the VC distributions. My hunch is that the majors collectively are spending more on biofuels than on solar. Any comments from industry are most welcome.