ESAI: Future climate change policy likely regional, national

“Scatter Shot Reform: Fuel Engine Pathways for Automotive Transportation: 2010-2025” is a recent report by Energy Security Analysis Inc. that analyzes how transportation fuels will develop in coming decades.

The report’s executive summary says competing—sometimes conflicting—reform will result in “a vastly different fuels landscape than the comparatively simple gasoline and diesel market in place today.” ESAI believes the emergence of vehicle fuel technologies will develop slowly and haphazardly.

“The overarching conclusion of this study is that environmental reform will result from a mosaic of provincial, national, and regional initiatives,” the report said. “ESAI believes that the scatter shot approach described in this study illustrates the likely evolution of future developments in climate change policy.

“While international negotiations such as those in Kyoto or Copenhagen will serve a purpose in aligning benchmarks, the future of climate policy will unfold not on the global stage, but on the national and regional stage.”

ESAI , a Boston-area energy research and consulting firm, notes that the changing transportation fuels business presents opportunities for oil companies, some of whom already are partnering with new energy companies developing breakthrough technologies.

The language of climate change

Journalists and readers alike are learning some lingo formerly used primarily by climatologists. Many people’s vocabularies are expanding (mine included) while following news coverage and commentaries about climate change and global warming.

One example is dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI). I learned the phrase while reading a book by Elizabeth Kolbert entitled “Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change.”

Kolbert explains that DAI does not refer to any specific disaster but rather it involves a range of climate change scenarios that could result in mass extinction.

“The disintegration of one of the planet’s remaining ice sheets is often held up as the exemplary catastrophe,” Kolbert wrote. “DAI is therefore understood to refer not to the end of the process, but to the beginning of it-–the point at which its arrival becomes unavoidable.”

So far, scientists have yet to determine what carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere would represent DAI. Scientific debate about global warming involves countless technical questions. Sometimes, it seems to me that constructive debate gets sidetracked by semantics.

I can see this happening easily with DAI because many people disagree about whether humans are the dominant force triggering climate change. Of all the people who attended the recent Copenhagen meeting, I wonder how many participants would describe global warming as “a natural process.”

Guest list for Copenhagen climate meeting grows

The White House says President Obama plans to attend the United Nations climate meeting in Copenhagen as a side stop while en route to pick up his Nobel Prize in Oslo.

Scott Segal, legal partner at Bracewell & Giuliani, notes that direct presidential involvement was crucial to passing the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990s. Segal believes involvement from the Oval Office will prove to be a key element again if anything on climate policy is to become US law.

“As to whether Obama’s attendance will transform the results in Copenhagen, it seems unlikely,” Segal said. “While speaking softly, China and India still seem steadfastly opposed to strict (emissions) targets for emerging nations, and progress on the major sticking points across the board remains slow.”

He does note that Obama's involvement in Copenhagen ultimately might help nudge along climate policy debate in Washington, DC.

I tend to agree with Segal. After so much fanfare and anticipation, it’s going to be hard for the Copenhagen meeting to fulfill broad, public expectations. Personally, I expect to see volumes written by the general media following the meeting, regardless of what happens.

What actually happens in Washington on climate after Copenhagen could prove as important to many oil and gas companies as whatever might happen in Copenhagen.

Copenhagen to address tragedy of the commons

Lately, my e-mail box receives a lot of items containing the word Copenhagen in reference to the United Nations Climate Change conference scheduled there during Dec. 7-18.

US and Chinese leaders met in Beijing last month to discuss energy and the environment in efforts toward reaching some cooperative pact on climate change. The two countries are the biggest emitters of carbon dioxide.

Climate scientists are calling for a collective international political will to implement changes, saying climate models show human influence on climate has exceeded the natural variability of climate change since about 1970. Scientists frequently cite a phrase: the tragedy of the commons.

The typical example of a commons is to imagine a pasture open to all herdsmen who try to keep as many cattle as possible. The arrangement works for awhile, but eventually somebody adds too many cows, resulting in overgrazing. All the herdsmen suffer.

Today, countries are getting together and talking about the possible worldwide consequences of burning fossil fuels. The commons in this case is the atmosphere.

I expect to see a lot more e-mail items this year containing the word Copenhagen. What remains to be seen is how all this talk might translate into future business dealings for oil and gas companies.