Chinese vs. US gasoline consumption

When it comes to anticipated oil demand, Amy Myers Jaffe of Rice University’s James Baker Institute for Public Policy likes to point out what she calls a big myth.

The myth is the notion that China has replaced the US as a driving force in world gasoline consumption, Jaffe says. The US has 250 million vehicles compared with China’s 13 million vehicles on the road, she said, citing statistics from various agencies.

Gasoline use contributes about a third of all emissions stemming from fossil fuel combustion, she said.

“A vast pent-up demand for automobiles and electricity exists in the developing world,” said Jaffe. One of the biggest questions is the potential fuel efficiency of future automobiles. Climate and energy security policy are expected to focus heavily on automobile efficiency.

“Most forecasts indicate that future growth in global oil demand will come almost entirely in the transportation sector,” Jaffe said. “Technology and policy, therefore, will be vital to determining the pace of oil demand growth.”

Emerging policy is apt to get complex. California developed a very detailed Low Carbon Standard aimed at driving innovations in vehicle efficiency and alternative transportation fuel.

Jaffe spent three hours discussing the California Low Carbon Standard with someone who was very familiar with it. Everything could not be covered in that period, she said. California hopes that its standard could serve as a model for US national policy.